The take-private supercycle: Hologic, Sealed Air, and the $48B PE week.
The week of April 9 produced three large-cap take-privates in a single five-day window: Hologic ($18.3B, Blackstone and TPG), Sealed Air ($8.7B, KKR), and Owens & Minor ($4.2B, Apollo). Combined deal value reached $31.2B — more than the total take-private volume in all of Q1 2025. The speed and concentration is not coincidence. It reflects a structural setup that has been building since mid-2024, one that shows no signs of slowing through the remainder of the year.
A Structural Setup Three Years in the Making
Four conditions converged in Q1 2026 to create the conditions for a take-private supercycle. Public company valuations stayed depressed relative to private comps, with mid-cap healthcare and industrials trading at a median 2.1x EBITDA discount to comparable private market transactions. LBO financing recovered sharply as credit spreads tightened to 280 basis points — near 2021 lows — giving PE sponsors access to debt at costs not seen since the pre-rate-hike era. Large funds that had slow deployment years in 2023 and 2024 entered mandatory deployment windows as LP capital calls mounted. And perhaps most importantly, CEO and board receptivity has shifted: watching peer companies get taken private at 25-30% premiums changes the calculus at every public company board table.
Who's Writing the Checks
Blackstone dominates the current cycle. Its Real Estate and Healthcare verticals have closed $34B in take-privates over the past 18 months, including the Hologic deal and two prior healthcare exits that returned 2.8x and 3.1x respectively. KKR is concentrating on industrials, where management teams have demonstrated consistent pricing power through two inflationary cycles — Sealed Air's packaging moat fits that thesis precisely. TPG, increasingly active in healthcare since spinning out its impact platform, is building a portfolio that resembles the one Apollo ran into the 2021 exit cycle. Apollo itself took Owens & Minor private in a direct continuation of its healthcare services consolidation thesis, having acquired three other healthcare distribution businesses in the prior 24 months.
The Target Formula
The three deals this week share a profile that has appeared in every PE take-private cycle since 2012: stable, predictable EBITDA; a defensible market position or regulatory moat; and underperformance relative to sector peers over the prior 12 months that has depressed the public market multiple. Hologic traded 18% below its 2021 high despite reporting three consecutive years of EBITDA growth above 30%. Sealed Air had missed earnings estimates in three of the last four quarters on top-line softness, compressing its multiple to 7.4x EBITDA — vs the 9.5-11x range at which comparable packaging assets have changed hands in private markets. The structural gap between public and private valuations is the defining feature of the current cycle.
What's Next: The Exposed Names
Screening for the same profile — stable EBITDA, sub-sector underperformance over the prior 12 months, net leverage below 3x, and no controlling shareholder — surfaces four names that fit the documented pattern. Perrigo ($4.1B market cap) has traded sideways for three years while peers rerated. Prestige Consumer Healthcare ($2.9B) generates consistent free cash flow but has never received an activist bid or premium offer. Silgan Holdings ($3.6B), a specialty packaging company with 40% of revenue under long-term contracts, is the kind of asset KKR has specifically targeted in its most recent fund. Berry Global ($6.2B) is larger but not beyond reach for a consortium. None of these are confirmed targets. All fit the documented pattern.
Premium Analysis
The 28% average premium across this week's three deals is above the historical midpoint for PE take-privates but within the observed range. Over the 2020-2025 cycle, PE take-private premiums ranged from 22% (distressed situations) to 35% (competitive auctions with strategic bidders). The current 28% average suggests competitive but not frenzied bidding — consistent with a market where PE sponsors have capital to deploy but are not yet in a full bidding war with strategics. If credit spreads tighten another 20-30 basis points, which the current futures market implies by Q3, the upper bound of sustainable premiums rises, and the profile of available targets expands. The supercycle has room to run.